HAVE THE REPUBLICANS BLINKED?

By: Thomas McKelvey Cleaver

In the aftermath of the rejection of Republican religious extremism by the American people, who on the way got a good idea of the value of an independent judiciary, there is a hint - the kind of hint that Kremlinologists used to look for when examining photos of who was standing next to whom in which row atop Lenin’s tomb at the annual Soviet May Day Parades - that even a moron like Senator Bill "Kitten-Killer" Frist can tell when the wind is blowing from the city dump that is the Republican far right.

For the past month, anyone with any political awareness has been watching for signs of movement around the question of Frist deciding to invoke "the nuclear option" in the Senate - the revocation of the right of filibuster when it comes to approval of judicial nominees.

The latest Gallup Poll out Wednesday reveals that 55% of Americans believe Republicans are trying to use the federal government to interfere with the private lives of most Americans when it comes to moral values, and by an overwhelming 76%-20% majority they disapprove of Congress' handling of the Schiavo case. Not only that, but a plurality of 39% believes the Religious Right has "too much influence" over Republicans in Congress.

It didn't take the Gallup Poll for the most influential section of the Republican coalition to put their finger to the wind and discover the change in direction. Over the last two weeks of the Spring Recess, Corporate America - worried their so-far successful agenda will come to a screeching halt - are reportedly urging Senator Kitten-Killer not to exercise the "nuclear option" on judicial nominees.

While industry lobbyists and association heads on K Street have so far managed to avoid taking a public position on the escalating debate on stalled judicial nominations, they're using one-on-one conversations with Senate leaders, asides in meetings on other topics and staff contacts to communicate they have concluded that - whatever its merits - the nuclear option isn't worth the price of imperiling their legislative agenda. It comes down to an essential question for the Republicans: do they "follow the money" and acquiesce to the demands of Corporate America, or do they "count the votes" and hope for a continued low voter turnout in 2006, thus making the demands of the 15% of the American electorate that counts itself as the Christian Right their program in a war over the judiciary?

The risk for the Republicans is much greater than has been advertised. If Frist fails to change the filibuster rules, he runs the risk of pissing off the activist base, and would also be weakened and embarrassed after the past months spent grandstanding and making grandiose threats in hopes he can ride that pony into the White House in2008. On the other hand, if he does follow through and as a result the Corporate Republican agenda can't get passed, it will make the K Street lobbyists who channel money very unhappy. One way or the other, he and the other GOP lawmakers run the risk of a public backlash. Even some of the Christian Right true believers might come to see that the bankruptcy "reform" harms their personal interests.

This has made for an interesting week. Following the death of Terri Schiavo last week, "Mr. Personable," Tom DeLay made the threat that the judges who had foiled his declared goal of taking two steps forward on the road to Theocracy would "have to answer" for their decisions.

Following true to form, the second of the Texas Moron Triumvirate rose in the Senate on Tuesday and declared that the actions of a deranged lunatic and a convicted rapist in murdering one judge and the close relatives of another were somehow manifestations of public discontent with an "out of control" judiciary. Even with that, Senator Cornyn backed away from "Hot Tub Tommy" DeLay's remarks, saying "I really don't know what he means." This is likely true, given Cornyn certainly doesn’t know how the republic he is sworn to defend is organized and operates.

Following Cornyn's demonstration of what exactly a Texas Goat-Roper is, the New York Times editorialized that Cornyn "made excuses [for] murderous violence against judges as an understandable reaction to their decisions," noting that it was "horrifying even by the rock-bottom standards of the campaign that Republican zealots are conducting against the nation's judiciary... It was sickening that an elected official would publicly offer these sociopaths as examples of any democratic value, let alone as holders of legitimate concerns about the judiciary."

Congressional GOP sources are privately acknowledging that the American public believes they "overstepped" their authority by inserting the Congress into the Schiavo case.

Frist has distanced himself from “Hot Tub Tommy” by saying "I believe we have a fair and independent judiciary today, and I respect that," while at the same time trying to say that public reaction to DeLay's overreach in the Schiavo case and the demand by the movement conservative base to end judicial filibusters are two different issues. He sounds more and more like a man whistling past the graveyard when he says "I'll have to let Members of this body and others speak for themselves."

Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell also put some distance between himself and DeLay's comments, saying the Schiavo matter had been addressed by the Senate and was now resolved.

The fissure between the Republican's traditional corporate base with its concern for property rights, deregulation and tax reduction, and the Rapture Right constituency with its goal of establishing a Theocracy, makes one wish that we could jump ahead 12 months and get on with the mid-term elections. Not only do a majority of Americans see the Republicans in congress acting inappropriately and in the thrall of the kind of religious nuts who scare most normal people, but a majority now believes the President lied to get us into war, is wrong and getting wronger on his Social Security plan, and has botched the job of handling the economy.

With a little more time, we may witness the Party of God go into free-fall.