BUSH, BOLTON, BIGGER PROBLEMS

It appears that John Bolton will pass the first step of his nomination process and go on to face a vote of the full Senate in the very near future. As much as I dislike Bolton as a person, his nomination to the United Nations makes me dislike President Bush even more as I believe that Bush's legacy could be a pit in which America has to spend years digging itself out of.

Bush's decision to nominate Bolton is an indication that he only wants the United Nations to work with the United States if it is on the President's own terms. I always believed that the United Nations existed as an organization that had the freedom to follow its own path, without the bullying of any nation. President Bush has now made it clear that he wants the United Nations to either be a tool of the United States, or nothing at all. This Bush principle goes against the very theories that founded the United Nations.

Although the United Nations is located within the boarders of the U.S., this organization will remain most effective when it is free from major nations trying to over-influence different policies. If you follow the Bush logic here, and that have Bolton, then you have to admit that Bush wants the United States to be the driving force within the United Nations. However, what happens down the road if India, China, or the European Union were to come in and apply the same logic that Bush has installed? I doubt the President would yield to a foreign power, yet Bush also seems to not care what happens past his second term.

With the recent economic figures, the ongoing situation in Iraq, and the lack of decent foreign policy President Bush is digging American into a hole that could quite possibly take generations to dig out of. For example, nations that have privatized Social Security ,in the same way that President Bush wants America to do, are still trying to find a way to undo that damage. In spite of all the failures in privatization, Bush is still campaigning for his vision of change.

It would be one thing if Bush was taking a course of action that could sink the GOP, but his path will not only sink Republicans, but Americans as well. The cost of oil is up, yet President Bush would rather drill in Alaska instead of finding a way to decrease our dependency on oil. Why? Because when he is out of office it won't be his problem. Bush's short term answers will only cause long-term problems.

2006 is the year that America must stop the bleeding, more Democratic seats in congress means a tougher time for President Bush to pass his policies. Bush will put American in a hole, but we have the power to make it as small as possible.

November 2006 is still far off, but we must remember all of the things Bush and the Republicans have done, and what the implications of these actions will be in the future. John Bolton is just the latest Bush move towards sending America into the ground.

Ryan Oddey
Ryan@TAFMess.com

When The Going Gets Tough...Change the subject


Bad news today via the New York Times as we find out that in spite of the economy adding 2.2 million jobs in 2004, the average wage for workers fell for the year once you adjust for inflation. The first drop in almost 10 years. The New York Times Reports "Pay increases are not rebounding, even though the factors normally associated with higher pay have rebounded," said Peter LeBlanc of Sibson Consulting, a division of Segal, a human resources consulting firm.

The big question becomes is this new situation a long-term thing or is it a temporary slide that will work itself out? Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley said "We're in for a long period where inflation-adjusted wages will be under acute pressure....That's a most unusual development in a period of high productivity growth. Normally, real wages track productivity."

Others believe the difference is temporary, some who believe the decrease in wages has been caused by the soaring costs of oil.

This is a serious problem that needs to be addressed, as consumers are also being forced to pay the high costs of oil, yet do not have the luxury of having more money coming in. The whole premise of the Bush administration has been to allow more Americans to have more of their money, yet this economic news indicates that the opposite is true. So how does President Bush plan on addressing this issue? According to The Gadflyer, with a speech at Fort Hood "to address the troops about the War on Terror, and other tough-talkin' stuff." Way to dodge the issue Mr. President.

Ryan Oddey
Ryan@TAFMess.com

What to do with Tom DeLay

Matthew Yglesias at Tapped is concerned over how the Democrats are handling the situation involving Tom DeLay. Yglesias writes "What, for example, is the DCCC doing trumpeting efforts by vulnerable Republicans to distance themselves from DeLay? They should be emphasizing everyones ties with DeLay." Are the Democrats mishandling this, and if so, why?

My take on this is that the Democrats have been so eager to put DeLay or any other GOP member in their place in the hopes of helping the Donkey that they may end up failing to maximize the impact of DeLay's actions. Ygelsias is right, the Dems need to use DeLay's history against people other than Tom DeLay in the hopes of winning a number of seats come 2006.

I am as excited as any other Democrat about catching DeLay with his hand in the cookie jar, but I think the powers-that-be need to get together and come up with a better long-term approach on how to handle all of this. It would be a real shame to look back after the elections in 2006 only to see that we could have come up with something better in order to knock of some Republicans at the polls.

Ryan Oddey
Ryan@TAFMess.com

TAX NEWS YOU NEED TO KNOW

I happened to be checking out the opinions and commentary on some other political sites when I came across something that I believe every person should know about. The alternative minimum tax, and how it has come out of nowhere for some people and hit them hard.

Tapped's Jeffrey Dubner mentions how his parents were among those who were "slammed" by the alternative minimum tax this year. His main point though is that in spite of the Dubner family's close monitoring of politics, they did not see this coming. Dubner writes "My parents follow politics as closely as anybody whose jobs don't directly involve the government, and yet all the Paul Krugman columns, Citizens for Tax Justice or Center on Budget and Policy Priorities analysis, and Prospect articles in the world didn't prepare them for it"

The alternative minimum tax was conceived in 1969 "to prevent the very rick from using tax deductions to avoid paying a fair share of taxes." The New York Times points out that "when the deadline for filing income tax returns arrives on Friday, the alternative minimum tax will require 2.9 million families to pay an average of about $6,000 more than what they would owe under traditional calculations."

If you aren't excited yet, maybe this will get your heart racing. "f current law remains unchanged, the alternative minimum tax is expected to wring an extra $33.9 billion from 18 million households in 2006. In 2010, it will rake in an additional $100 billion, and by 2015 an extra $200 billion."

Although Bush has promised to fix this, The White House has made it very clear that they are "counting on the extra money"

Dubner ends his post with an excellent point, it is too late now to do anything about this issue this year, but it could become a major campaign issue in 2006. This is one of those topics the Democrats can embrace and use to extend the party's appeal to middle-class voters in 2006. Hopefully that powers-that-be in the Democratic Party realize this and capitalize on a chance to help American Families as well as improve the standing of their party.

Ryan Oddey
Ryan@TAFMess.com

Bad Weekend for DeLay

If you happened to catch tome of the news yesterday that you are well aware that Rep Tom DeLay (R-TX) is facing increasing pressure from his own party to either resign or explain his actions.

Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) appeared on ABC's "This Week" and said "I think he has to come forward and lay out what he did and why he did it and let the people then judge for themselves."

Rep Chris Shays (R-CT) told the Associated Press "Tom's conduct is hurting the Republican Party, is hurting this Republican majority, and it is hurting any Republican who is up for re-election." Shays then called for DeLay to step down as majority leader.

The Carpetbagger Report points out that President Bush and other GOP leaders have declined to defend DeLay, which is a sign that more and more people may be distancing themselves from "The Hammer".

Personally, I want to follow Santorum's idea and force DeLay to answer some questions, but let the voters in his district decide his fate. The longer DeLay hangs in there the worse it will be for all Republicans. In turn, that becomes a good thing for the Democrats.

I am sure DeLay didn't know that today was my birthday, but he sure managed to deliver a nice present over the weekend, keep it up Hammer.

Ryan Oddey
Ryan@TAFMess.com

The Funeral of John Paul II

Note: At 3:30am Eastern Time on April 8th, 2005 Managing Editor Ryan Oddey awoke to watch the funeral of John Paul II. These are his thoughts, in chronological order, of the services.

I awoke early this morning to watch the Funeral of Pope John Paul II and I must admit it was striking to see so many world leaders from so many different backgrounds in the same place. It was also interesting to see an event where the United States was treated the same as every other nation in attendance and not the benefactor of special significance.

I watched MSNBC's coverage, and I must say that it was quite good. Tasteful enough to let the funeral speak for itself, but insightful enough to have the extra tidbits from Chris Mathews and Chris Jansing that you might come to expect from a major news network.

Also interesting was the outbursts of applause during the funeral, and from what I gather from the news commentary this is an Italian custom. I was also impressed on how the service itself was done in numerous different languages, a true sign of international importance as well as a reflection on John Paul II's own linguistic skills.

As I watched the funeral, I had to wonder if we will ever see a funeral like this again in my lifetime. Yesterday I read that over two billion people would be watching this funeral on television, let alone the millions in Rome for the event. I do not think that any world leader would ever garner that much attention regardless of circumstance.

Regardless of my personal beliefs and my opposition to some of the Church's stances on some social issues I must admit it is wonderful to see so many heads of state sitting together, as equals, honoring one single person. Furthermore, the response by the public at the event is staggering, the applause I mentioned above has been frequent during the ceremony as so many people do their best to say goodbye.

I can't imagine how one would go about planning the largest funeral in history. In the modern day, security concerns must have been at an all-time high, yet it appeared as if there were no problems, a job well done.

The time on my computer reads 6:36am, and as the Cardinals head inside I know that we are moments away from our final look at John Paul II, or as the crowd has been chanting, John Paul The Great. The ceremony today was impressive, and as I said above, I will always remember the scene of so many people, and so many world leaders, of different nations and backgrounds coming together to pay their final respects to one man. On any other day I would not awake early in the morning, but today was different, today was special, as it was the day when I joined the world in saying goodbye to the only Pope I have ever known.



Ryan Oddey
Ryan@TAFMess.com

ARNOLD BLINKS

By: Thomas McKelvey Cleaver

Fresh off his victory in court two weeks ago, in which a Sacramento judge declared that imposing through law a maximum donation limit of $22,500 per person on political committees controlled by the governor was a too-strict limitation on Arnold Schwarzenegger's "freedom of speech" - thus allowing him to troll the national right wing for unlimited donations to his campaign to Republicanize California - Democratic opponents have been gearing up for a knock-down drag-out fight in a $70 million special election this coming November.

That was until the Governor Of All The People got a look at the latest statewide poll by the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University.

In January, Arnold's approval rating was 59% - high, but still down from his high-60s approval ratings of 2004. As of today, his approval rating is 49%, with a disapproval rate of 38% among voters only - with a 43%-43% tie among all California adults. He’s also tied 43%-43% over the question of whether he is working honestly with the legislature and getting things done. 62% think he should do more to work with the legislature, with Republicans agreeing with this 49%-34%.

More importantly, voters disapprove of his plan to bypass the legislature and go directly to the electorate with his propositions, 47%-38%.

In January of this year, 52% of Californians thought the state was on the right track, with only 35% saying we were off track. Three months later, 49% believe the state is off track, with only 39% saying Arnold has things on the right track. Statistically, this is a 180-degree reversal in less than 90 days.

Political ads by California teachers, nurses, police and firefighters, attacking Arnold for saying they are "special interests" - while he gives private briefings to those "regular Californians" who can donate at least $80,000 at his most recent political rally - are having their effect.

Less than 24 hours after this poll was announced, Der Governator called a press conference to announce that he was not going to press for a special election in November, stating that he was satisfied to present his proposals at the next regular election in June, 2006. This means there will be no mid-decade reapportionment of legislative and congressional districts.

I may dislike Arnold Schwarzenegger politically, but I have no doubt of his intellect. He's smart enough to see that the past two weeks - in which the national Republican Party has managed to establish themselves in the public mind as being so extreme they even scare Republicans - has created an atmosphere where even The Terminator realizes that being relentless is a good way to end a political career now.

Der Governator obviously - for now - thinks that saving these proposals to make them part of his re-election campaign next year makes sense. He’s right. But 2006 isn’t shaping up as being a Great Republican Year. His proposals are losing public support, his approval numbers are now close to free-fall, and with the rest of the Republican Party poised to throw themselves over the cliff of True Belief next year, Arnold and his reforms may go overboard with the rest.

THE NEW KING OF FLIP FLOP: BILL FRIST

The other day I reported on how it appeared Bill Frist was distancing himself from people like DeLay who blasted the judges who opted not to order the reinsertion of Schiavo's feeding tube. Frist called the judicial system fair and that he respected the decisions of the judges. Apparently he is changing his mind.

From The Carpertbagger Report:

"Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) will host a private tour of the Capitol next week led by a controversial Republican religious operative who advocates the impeachment of "activist" federal judges.

Democrats were quick to question Frist's choice of tour guides.

David Barton, vice chairman of the Texas Republican Party, was invited by Frist to give the tour, which the Tennessee Senator described in a March 31 invitation to all 100 Senators as "a Fresh Perspective on Our Nation's Religious Heritage."

"He is an historian noted for his detailed research into the religious heritage of our nation," Frist wrote his colleagues."

So the question now becomes "where does Frist really stand?" I am willing to bet that his opinion is closer to that of David Barton's. It makes more sense for Frist to come out and tell the media that he respects the decision made by the judges in the Schiavo case in the hopes of trying to save face over the issue than it would to just bring Barton in to be a tour guide in order to keep some radical righties happy.

I hope someone asks Frist about this, it will be interesting to watch him try and explain this one away.

Ryan Oddey
Ryan@TAFMess.com

SCHIAVO MEMO SOURCE REVEALED

Mike Allen of the Washington Post reports today that the legal counsel to Senator Mel Martinez of Florida, Brian Darling, was the one who wrote the memo expressing the benefits to Republicans for becoming involved in the Terri Schiavo case.

Darling offered his resignation which was accepted. Martinez, who seems to be taking no accountability on this issue, said he never read the memo and inadvertently gave it to Senator Tom Harkin, at which point the memo found its way into the hands of reporters.

What I find interesting is that Harkin is claiming Martinez gave him the memo claiming that it contained "talking points -- something that we're working on here."

Our Conservative counterparts in the blogosphere have been claiming that the memo was not authentic, even comparing it to the Bush National Guard Memos that CBS News reported on.

Sorry to bust your bubble righties, but it seems this one is legit. Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if Darling took the bullet here for Martinez. Either way, I would hope that all officials read documents that they pass on as their own and even if Martinez did not write the memo he was foolish enough to pass it on without reading it. That kind of ignorance can't help you win votes.

Ryan Oddey
Ryan@TAFMess.com

JACK ABRAMOFF IS KAISER SOZE

By: Ryan Oddey

One of my all time favorite movies has to be 1995's "The Usual Suspects." This movie was a bit of genius to me because it was the first time I had ever been completely surprised by the "twist" at the end. As I reflect back on that movie now, I begin to see some similarities between the fictitious characters of "The Usual Suspects" and the very real low lifes in the GOP.

The plot in "The Usual Suspects" revolves around a group of criminals who are brought together by Kaiser Soze, a criminal mastermind who is a criminal version of William Wallace, more legend as opposed to fact. Soze was the common bond that all of the players shared, and in the end it is Soze who escapes capture while his accomplices all meet their maker.

I first realized that the situation regarding the recent allegations towards Tom DeLay were similar to the plot of "The Usual Suspects" when I read a quote at The Stakeholder: "To the casual observer, it was a pretty simple deal," recalls one former GOP House leadership aide. "Jack raised money for the pet projects of DeLay and took care of his top staff. In turn, they granted him tremendous access and allowed him to freely trade on DeLay's name."

"To the casual observer, it was a pretty simple deal." That line could have opened "The Usual Suspects."

You see, much like the movie, the recent allegations involving Tom DeLay seemed pretty simple at first. DeLay was merely going on trips that were legal under the guidelines that govern members of Congress, or so it seemed. As we learned from "The Usual Suspects," nothing is ever quite as it seems. When Kobayashi got everyone together in one room, the audience knew something was on as we began to see the mysterious Kobayashi had brought everyone together for one purpose.

As we see with DeLay, the news media has become Kobayashi, letting the public know that all of the players in this scandal were brought together for another purpose. Although DeLay claims that these trips were legitimate, it is becoming more and more apparent that he and the other players actually had ulterior motives, in this case the interests of the lobbying groups that paid for their trips.

Now, as the story continues to unfold, the DeLay saga is at the point right where the usual suspects are in the middle of storming the boat and everything is going wrong and you realize that not everyone will make it out of this scandal. The question becomes, "who is Kaiser Soze?"

On the surface, we may be inclined to think that Tom DeLay is Kaiser Soze, just as we may have pegged Dean Keaton during the film. However, DeLay will end up being one of the people who don't make it off the boat, all because Soze was playing him and the others involved for his own benefit.

In order for this DeLay scandal to have been pulled off, assuming the allegations are true, we needed one central person who could bring everyone together. Who had access to Michael Scanlon, the former spokesman for Tom DeLay? Who directed his clients to donate to Republican Think Tanks that had little or nothing to do with the interests of those same clients? Who was a member of the Greenberg Traurig law firm that was described as one of "Washington's most successful lobbying groups"? These questions share one common answer.

Our Kaiser Soze is Jack Abramoff.

At the end of the movie, Soze utters one of the great lines in cinema history when he says "The Greatest Trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist." Luckily for us, this isn’t the movies and all of the usual suspects - Tom DeLay, Jack Abramoff, Michael Scanlon, and others - have no prayer of disappearing. In the end, DeLay will meet the same fate of all the others who have been played by Kaiser Soze: they end up going down with the ship.

Ryan Oddey
Ryan@TAFMess.com